By Abdallah Ahmad* —
The problem is that we deal with is a nonlinear and dynamic international relations environment, it is clear that in the short and medium term (from one to four to five years) the course of the world order will be determined, It is also clear that the Syrian crisis solution is related to the nature of this change, but the risks are still great because of the contradictory objectives of the main players.
From the other hand, The American and Israeli escalation could lead to a reaction by Syria and its allies, and then the region may enter into a war which can’t be controlled , nevertheless, the acceptance of the current reality holds far greater risks for Syria than a confrontation.
The declaration of victory on ISIS by the US-backed forces “Syrian Democratic Forces” does not change the reality, The United States still protecting the terrorists at the Rikban camp, and The Syrian East is still occupied by the United States & the separatist groups that US support them.
The situation in Idlib and in the Syrian North is still complicated, Turkey and the United States had been supporting terrorist groups in that region and they obstructing any efforts to liberate that region, this coincides with an American-Israeli escalation in the Golan Heights after President Trump announced his recognition of the Golan Heights annexation to the Israeli entity.
The balances are fragile and the calculations are accurate, while the goals of the various players also clear, all wants to change the game rules to their advantage, and here the danger lies.
Syria is committed to liberate all Syrian territory from terrorism, and from the Turkish and American occupation, therefor the military option become the only option for the Syrian government to deal with the Kurdish groups supported by the United States if the dialogue with these groups fails.
also Syria cannot accept the Golan heights annexation by Israel, or the ongoing Israeli threat, the Israeli escalation could lead to a full confrontation, and that’s poses a threat to the region as a whole.
The continuation of the situation as it is in Idlib (Syrian North) can’t be accepted as well, especially after the failure of the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib.
At the same time, the economic and media war on Damascus is escalating, with the aim of imposing a settlement on Syria before the end of occupation and terrorism in Idlib and in the north, the economic war is expected to escalate on next years.
All that, makes the military solution is the only options, while the lack of a political solution, which maybe lead to an increase in the military tension with Washington. Also can carries the risk of a confrontation between Syria and its allies on the one hand and Turkey and the United States on the other, nor is it possible to see an Israeli escalation in the Syrian west, and that’s what Moscow trying to avoid
The Kurds Illusions..
It is clear that the United States is obstructing the dialogue between the Syrian government and the Kurdish groups and encouraging the Kurds to make demographic changes In the areas they control, in the hope that will Revive the illusion of the federalism, which in turn makes the political option impossible at this stage, therefor the military option to restore the territory controlled by kurds considered as an option, but any military operation may lead to direct confrontation with the US, and that’s at the heart of the Syrian-Iranian-Russian calculations.
What about the Possible Israeli escalation in the Syrian north?
All possibilities are possible, Especially after the American-Israeli provocation regarding the Golan Heights, Israel knows very well that it will not win any war, and knows very well that it can ignite a war, but it cannot control its results, anyhow such war might be complicate the situation not only in the Syria but in the regain as well …
East or North?
The Syrian government most likely will launch a military campaign to eliminate terrorism and to liberate the north including “Idlib” and the Syrian east gradually.
But the Strategic calculations and new challenges may push Syria to start a limited campaign in the Syrian east to secure the road between Iraq and Syria and to secure some oil fields in the east, Anyhow the liberation of Idlib remains important at the strategic level
In any event, the bet on a political solution seems to be misplaced on the present stage, all of which makes the military option the most likely one on next months.
*Abdallah Ahmad is a Syrian researcher and expert in geopolitical affairs.