THE LEVANT EXCLUSIVE – By Jassim Mohammed, Counter terrorism and intelligence writer – It seems that Iraq is rushing strongly towards radicalism and terrorism. After failing to achieve their demands through demonstrations and sit-ins, some tribal and political Sunni leaders have built alliances with the “Islamic state” to overthrow Baghdad government. From the other side, Iraqi political blocks and Shia militias were rushing towards and hiding behind Iran, turning the scene to a sectarian confrontation aiming at defending their own existence and faith rather than defending their motherland.
The reliance of the Iraqi government on Shia’ militias, represents a threat to Iraqi national security, as most of these militias receive military training in Iran. The media and social networks have been contributing in escalating the sectarian war in Iraq.
The Investigation by the Iraqi intelligence service revealed details about the “Islamic State Organization”, these details included information about the leadership of the organization, which helped Iraqi Intelligence to arrest some of the leaders from the first rank, as before and following the invasion of Mosul, the Ministry of interior announced during the month of June 2014 the killing of the so-called Abu Abdul Rahman, the head of the Military Council for “ISIS”, and the arrest of another leader through the execution of a security operation in Mosul.
The Information also revealed that the ”Emire” of the Islamic state, Ibrahim al-Badri with Al Baghdadinickname, relies on a group of military advisers of the former Saddam Hussein Iraqi regime before 2003 . Most of them coming from the western regions of Iraq and having tribunal links in Syria. Despite his lack of experience in running groups or individuals due to his experience based only on teaching jurisprudence and Hadith, Al-Baghdadi was able to control his advisers. In spite of the information stating that he led one of the Jihadi organizations under the leadership of Omar al- Baghdadi until 2010, before joining the “Islamic State” in Iraq his very quick promotion as he reached the top of the pyramid of the Islamic State in a short time after being released from Boka Prison in 2004, raised doubts about his background.
Documents showed intelligence penetration into the “ISIS”. Therefore, while establishing the Islamic State in Iraq in 2006 and following his emergence on 2010, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi focused on strengthening the security structure of the organization. After being released from prison al- Baghdadi worked as postman he was tasked to deliver and receive confidential letters. Meanwhile, General Mohammad Jubouri who took over the Command Staff of the Islamic State and Brigadier Samir Abd Mohamed al-Maarouf was appointed as Deputy for Jubouri, after they were released from prison. The latter played a key role in the military operations until his death in January 2014 during Syria confrontations, to be succeeded by Maj. Gen. Abu Muslim Al -Turkmeni.
Detention Centers in Iraq were under U.S. military control, detainees and prisoners were imprisoned on grounds of sect and identifications affiliations. Consequently, al-Qaeda fighters and “jihadist” had been kept away from Shia militia. U.S. forces were working to re-recruit some prisoners among Jihadist for intelligence reasons. For example, they were recruited again and then sent back to Jihadi circles including the circles of “ISIS”. However, that Abu Baker Al Baghdadi could be one of those and acting as a double agent. By preparing Al Baghdadi to act as double agent, he succeeded to gain the trust of Jihadi circles and this could be the reason behind his quick promotion to be on the top of ISIS pyramid structure.
Al Baghdai received some courses related to the work of intelligence inside the prison by the U.S.A, in order to enable him using these acquired skills in his Jihadi circles .Normally, and an agent should be subject to loyalty and intelligence test inside the prison and sometimes outside it. It should be notable that prisoners enjoy some freedom as they are allowed to make some personal contacts and sometimes to make private telephone calls to outside the prison.
Investigations conducted by Iraqi security and Intelligence department affirmed the aforesaid facts. What support this story is that al-Baghdadi doesn’t have any military profile; he was only concerned with SHARIAH and religious affairs but not intelligence or military experiences.
Al-Baghdadi succeeded in recruiting some high rank military men to draw up the strategies for his state “ISIS” in order to achieve the target of building the “Islamic state”.
This raises questions about from where Al- Baghdadi gets funds for his organization? Since that Al Qaeda led by Al Zawahry didn’t support the “IS “financially. Which means that al-Baghdadi receives funds for his “IS” on governmental level, as this matter has never been disclosed even by the CIA and treasury agency, which always report about Jihadist Network sources. One of the smartest steps taken by Al Baghdadi is that he strengthened his control over the funds and thus establishing its profile within the “IS” organization. There were reports on al-Baghdadi’s visit to Turkey in 2008 where he received funds from some Muslim relief Organizations. This would support the opinions talking about Turkey’s support to Al Baghdadi who is carrying out and implementing Turkey’s strategies aiming at destabilizing the Syrian regime.
“Islamic state” Future in Iraq and Syria
The events in Iraq are resulted by the alliance between the Islamic state and large number of Sunni Islamic fighters and non Islamic Groups as well as leaders of Sunni Tribes. Some Sunni leaders of tribes denied any relation with “IS”, but the fact is that there is kind of cooperation, practically. Some footage disclosed that the Sunni armed groups together with the “IS” killed more than 1700 young shiite in a mass killing following their taking over Mosel on June 10, 2014. That shows how sectarianism is penetrating deeply into Iraqi community. The confrontation, differences and problems between Sunni tribes and political leaders doesn’t justify their alliance with “IS” to topple Iraqi government.
The most active armed Sunni groups are Islamic Army led by Al Dabash and the Naqshbandiah army led by Ezat al Doory from Baath. Some Sunni politics and Tribes leaders including those in Iraqi parliament secured political and media covers to the “IS”. Amman, Iraqi militant groups meeting in July/2014 could be considered as an attempt and strong step toward reorganize their Militia and military operation to political one. Sunni Militants in Amman was seeking to gain regional and international support and forum, inspite that it is contrary with the international law and Genève agreements, which support central government to promot law and peace on over country even if it needs to implement the marshal law.
The alliances of “Islamic state” : the tribes and Al Naqshabanzah – Baath Party, cannot live longer, because of social, political and ideological differences. Differences started to appear and turned to a military confrontation. The “IS” carried a campaign against Minarets and holy shrines as well as operations of explosions in Mosul on 24th/July 2014 in addition to the attack on the shrine of the prophet Younis. Moreover, the “IS” adopted the Jihad Marriage from Mosul women, Al Baghdadi issued an order to let Mosul women get married from the foreign Jihadist! This step was completely rejected by society and rise differences with the alien militant Sunni groups. It’s expected that the coming days will witness bloody confrontations between the two parties.
The “IS” trying to copy its experiences from Al Raqa “Emirate” city in Syria to Al Mosul. That’s could be consider a repetition to the Syrian Free army alliances scene with Jehadist early of Syrian uprising 2011.
This means that the future of the “Islamic state” in the western region of Iraq region will depend on the Iraqi western region communities and tribes leadership more than depending on political leaders.
Immortal” Islamic State
The State new “Caliph” has been rejected by al-Qaeda and by majority of other “jihadist” groups, mainly by jihadist Salafi leaders e.g Abu Mohamad Al Maqdesy as well as by Al- Azhar AL SHAREEF in Cairo , they confirmed that it is unacceptable and incompatible with the Islamic law and Shariaa’.
The Confrontations between the central government and Iraqi militia who are fighting alongside “Islamic state” and the insurgency would be more escalated.
The dispute with the government from one side and between Islamic state and Sunni Militant from another side, will be increasing due to the displacement of the population mainly, Christians in Mosul. Radical Islamic state and radical Sunni groups will lead the region to multi military confrontations, causing the fragmentation of Iraq, because of their sectarian policy.
“Islamic state” will lose, gradually, its arsenal of weapons, manpower, fighters and support. Recently it is counting down in front of the Iraqi forces, as well as in Syria. The upcoming scene will show internal splits and armed confrontations among the members of the Islamic state from one side, and between the Islamic State and other Sunni radical groups, from the other side.